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Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.
Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Kansas City Fed Pres. : The Fed is keeping all options on the table, including a rate increaseFormer Kansas City Fed President Esther George joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, whether a rate hike is on the table, and more.
Persons: Esther George Organizations: Former Kansas City, Kansas City
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George: Yesterday was a reminder the Fed is focused on its mandateFormer Kansas City Fed President Esther George joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's remarks, rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Pres, Esther George Organizations: Kansas City Locations: . Kansas
The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in March because of downside risks in the labor market, according to Goldman Sachs. "There are some modest downside risks to inflation and the labor market that could still provide additional reasons for the FOMC to cut sooner rather than later." AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in March because there are downside risks to the labor market, according to Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle. Former Fed President Esther George noted just how quickly the labor market can sour, even when all indicators look positive. "The labor market is such a tricky one.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Mericle, Powell, Esther George, George Organizations: Fed, Former, Wall Street
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Kansas City Fed President Esther George: We are seeing signs of cooling in the economyFormer Kansas City Fed President Esther George joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss why the Fed will keep their options on rate hikes open, why she sees signs of cooling in the economy, and more.
Persons: Esther George, Organizations: Former Kansas City
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Kansas City Fed President Esther George: I think the Fed can be patient right nowEsther George, former Kansas City Federal Reserve President, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, the impact of September's much hotter-than-expected employment report, the state of the U.S. economy, and more.
Persons: Esther George Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve Locations: . Kansas, Kansas, U.S
So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.
Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, , Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell hit the tone and substance of the Jackson Hole speech as he needed to: Former Fed presidentEsther George, former Kansas City Fed President, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss George's view on Fed chair Powell's speech from Jackson Hole, how George would view the data in September, and why the aggressive rate hikes haven't had a more significant impact on the economy.
Persons: Powell, Jackson, Esther George, George Organizations: Former, Kansas City Fed Locations: Kansas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Kansas City Fed President Esther George: It's too soon to make the call on soft landingEsther George, former Kansas City Fed President, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the July retail sales report, Fitch's rating downgrade, the state of the economy, Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.
Persons: Esther George, It's Organizations: Kansas City Fed Locations: . Kansas, Kansas
Veteran banker Jeffrey Schmid picked to lead Kansas City Fed
  + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Jeffrey Schmid, the new president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed. The Kansas City Federal Reserve is about to get a new leader as the inflation-fighting central bank plots its course ahead. Schmid will serve the remainder of George's five-year term helming the Kansas City Fed, which will take him to Feb. 28, 2026. Interestingly, he arrives at the Fed just before the Kansas City district hosts its annual Jackson Hole summit, which this year will run from Aug. 24-26. The retreat features a keynote address from the Fed chair and often is pivotal in laying out policy strategy.
Persons: Jeffrey Schmid, Jeffrey R, Schmid, Esther George, Southern Methodist University's, Maria Griego, George, Jackson Organizations: Kansas City Fed, Kansas City Federal, Southern Methodist, Southern Methodist University's Cox School of Business, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Mutual, Omaha Bank, Federal Reserve, Associates, Fed, Kansas City Locations: Omaha, Raby, Albuquerque , New Mexico, Kansas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJeffrey R. Schmid to replace Esther George as Kansas City Fed presidentCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on news from the Kansas City Federal Reserve.
Persons: Jeffrey R, Schmid, Esther George, CNBC's Steve Liesman Organizations: Kansas City Fed, Kansas City Federal Reserve Locations: Kansas
He said in the statement released by the St. Louis Fed that the regional bank "is well-positioned for ongoing success and impact." The St. Louis Fed said Kathleen O'Neill Paese, the regional bank's first vice president and chief operating officer, will act as interim president. The regional bank said its search committee will look nationally for a new leader, noting that its search will be "robust, transparent, fair and inclusive." While they operate under the oversight of the Board of Governors in Washington, regional Fed banks are quasi-private institutions technically owned by member banks. With Bullard's exit, there will be two unfilled regional Fed bank slots.
Persons: James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed, Mitchell, Daniels, Jr, doesn't, Tim Duy, Duy, Derek Tang, LH Meyers, Wrightson ICAP, Kathleen Bostjancic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Louis Fed's, Esther George, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, U.S, Purdue, St, School of Business, Federal, Macro, Fed, Purdue University, Minneapolis Fed, Nationwide, Brookings Institution, Governors, Kansas City Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Indiana, St, Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will have to be closer to 3% than 4.5% for Fed to pivot, says former Fed presidentEsther George, former Kansas City Federal Reserve president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the Federal Reserve has more work to do to bring inflation down, if there's any data that would make George think the Federal Reserve will pause, and more.
Persons: Esther George, George Organizations: Fed, Kansas City Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Locations: Kansas
The Fed currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBS as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. That is about a quarter of the total MBS market, what George referred to as an "enormous" share that raises questions about the appropriate extent of the central bank's presence. In theory, that puts upward pressure on long-term interest rates by lowering demand for those assets. George said she did not have a specific plan in mind, but felt her colleagues should get to work on one. More important than the details of any plan "is just to say how will we go about doing that earlier rather than later.
Now, aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve and large spending packages have helped bring that ceiling into play once again. But Washington is at an impasse over whether or not to raise the debt limit: The White House expects Congress to pass a debt ceiling increase without conditions while Republicans say that any increase should be accompanied by spending cuts. Esther George says goodbye to the FedMost Americans dream of retiring by 65, but at the Federal Reserve it’s required. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City president Esther George turned 65 this weekend, triggering her mandated retirement. “Today, the U.S. is again experiencing high inflation and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening monetary policy.
(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday signaled they will push on with more interest rate hikes, with several supporting a top policy rate of at least 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. REUTERS/Jason Reed“I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with the Associated Press. The remarks appeared to reflect a widely shared view among her fellow policymakers, most of whom as of December had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that for her part she expects the Fed’s policy rate to need to go “a bit higher” than that, and stay there for some time to further slow inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supports a slower rate hike pace ahead because of the uncertain outlook and the need to be flexible.
Morning Bid: Japan hesitates
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Judging by Wednesday's reaction, world markets reckon Japan will eventually abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy despite a stubborn doubling down this week - and overseas ructions may be less than feared. But after some wild gyrations on the initial announcement, the market reaction was rather muted on balance. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) ended 2.5% higher, but it closed before the yen rebound in European hours. The release of December U.S. producer price, retail sales and industrial production numbers later on Wednesday now takes centre stage. U.S. Treasury auctions 20-year bonds* Bank of Japan policy decision.
Investors in the week ahead will focus on how much inflation and the slowing economy have chiseled away at corporate profits, as companies including Goldman Sachs , Netflix and Procter & Gamble report earnings. "This is going to be the start of the clock ticking on an earnings recession," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. Economic recession talk heats up "There's never been a recession without an earnings recession since World War II," Agati said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said this coming earnings week could be an important step towards assessing the health of corporate balance sheets. Week ahead calendar Monday Martin Luther King Jr. Day Markets closed Tuesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Citizens Financial, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers 8:30 a.m.
In the interview, George said her colleagues should press forward with their ongoing efforts to shrink the size of the Fed's balance sheet. "I think it's very important that the Committee follow through on its plans to significantly reduce the balance sheet," George said. She noted that she still views the Fed using its balance sheet as a tool of monetary policy as experimental and full of the possibility of unintended effects on the economy. "I think we still have a lot to learn about what the consequences are of these balance sheet policies," George said. George said that she doesn't believe the size of the Fed's balance sheet has created major financial stability risks but said it's something that needs watching.
Fed's Esther George sees rates staying high at least into 2024
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
As her 40-year central banking career comes to a close, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George is advising her colleagues to stay tough in their efforts to stamp out runaway inflation. George said Thursday that she thinks the Fed should raise its benchmark borrowing rate above 5% and keep it there until there are substantial signs that prices are stabilizing. At the December Fed meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the fed funds rate half a percentage point to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Asked whether her view is that the funds rate should hold above 5% into 2024, George replied, "It is for me." George is leaving the Fed this month as she hit the mandatory retirement age of 65.
US stocks fell on Thursday after a hot ADP jobs report reinforced the Fed's hawkish outlook. The report showed an increase of 235,000 jobs in December, compared to estimates of just 153,000. Federal Reserve members Esther George and James Bullard said on Thursday that interest rates will stay higher for longer. The report showed 235,000 jobs were added in December, well ahead of estimates for an increase of just 153,000. The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming February meeting, and hike rates by a total of 75 basis points in 2023.
On the benchmark S&P 500 index, rate-sensitive real estate stocks (.SPLRCR) led the losses with a 2.2% drop, while financials (.SPSY) slipped 1%. The ADP National Employment report showed a much greater-than-expected rise in private employment in December, while another report showed weekly jobless claims fell last week. The reports came a day after data showed a moderate fall in U.S. job openings, in growing evidence that the labor market remains tight. A strong labor market has been a concern for markets pummeled by rising borrowing costs as it gives the Federal Reserve a reason to raise rates for longer than expected this year. The more comprehensive nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, which would provide further clues on labor demand and the rate hike trajectory.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEsther George: My terminal Fed rate outlook is above 5% and staying there for some timeCNBC's Steve Liesman sits down with Kansas City Fed President Esther George to discuss her concerns about what the market has already priced in, and her expectations for a recession.
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The Federal Reserve is set to lose one of its more diligent skeptics when Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, retires next month. Ms. George began her tenure at the central bank 40 years ago in the midst of the last episode of very high U.S. inflation. She became the Kansas City Fed’s president in 2011, when the economy was mired in the protracted and difficult recovery from the global financial crisis.
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